Ukraine War Reshaping Global Arms Market

European nations are ramping up their defense industries to reduce reliance on imports, while Ukraine has emerged as a major arms recipient. Meanwhile, China is rapidly substituting imports with domestic production, and India is diversifying its suppliers. With geopolitical tensions driving military spending, the realignment of global arms trade is set to shape defense strategies for years to come

The top 10 arms exporters in 2020–24 were the same as those in 2015–19 but Russia (accounting for 7.8 per cent of global arms exports) fell to third place behind France (9.6 per cent), while Italy (4.8 per cent) jumped from 10th to sixth place.

At least 35 states sent weapons to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and substantial further deliveries are in the pipeline. Ukraine received 8.8 per cent of global arms imports in 2020–24. Most of the major arms supplied to Ukraine came from the USA (45 per cent), followed by Germany (12 per cent) and Poland (11 per cent). Ukraine was the only European state among the top 10 importers in 2020–24, although many other European states significantly increased their arms imports in the period.

With an increasingly belligerent Russia and transatlantic relations under stress during the first Trump presidency, European NATO states have taken steps to reduce their dependence on arms imports and to strengthen the European arms industry. Arms exports by the USA increased by 21 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, and its share of global arms exports grew from 35 per cent to 43 per cent. The USA supplied major arms to 107 states in 2020–24.

For the first time in two decades, the largest share of US arms exports in 2020–24 went to Europe (35 per cent) rather than the Middle East (33 per cent). Nevertheless, the top single recipient of US arms was Saudi Arabia (12 per cent of US arms exports). The USA is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports. At 43 per cent, its share of global arms exports is more than four times as much as the next-largest exporter, France. The USA continues to be the supplier of choice for advanced long-range strike capabilities like combat aircraft.

“The new arms transfers figures clearly reflect the rearmament taking place among states in Europe in response to the threat from Russia,” said Mathew George, Programme Director with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. “However, some major arms importers, including Saudi Arabia, India and China, saw large declines in import volumes for a variety of reasons, despite high threat perceptions in their regions,” he added.

In contrast to the USA, arms exports by Russia fell sharply (–64 per cent) between 2015–19 and 2020–24. The decline started before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022: in 2020 and 2021 export volumes were much smaller than in any year in the previous two decades.

The war against Ukraine has further accelerated the drop in Russia’s arms exports because more weapons are needed on the battlefield, trade sanctions make it harder for Russia to produce and sell its weapons, and the USA and its allies pressure states not to buy Russian arms. Two of Russia’s most important arms-trading relationships had already weakened before 2022, with India increasingly favouring other suppliers, and China sourcing more arms from its own burgeoning arms industry.Russia delivered major arms to 33 states in 2020–24. Two thirds of Russian arms exports went to three states: India (38 per cent), China (17 per cent) and Kazakhstan (11 per cent).

France became the world’s second largest arms supplier in 2020–24, delivering arms to 65 states. Nevertheless, India received by far the largest share of French arms exports (28 per cent)—almost twice the share that went to all European recipients combined (15 per cent). The second largest recipient of major arms from France was Qatar (9.7 per cent of French arms exports).

The share of global arms transfers going to states in Asia and Oceania fell from 41 per cent to 33 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24. A 21 per cent drop in imports to the region was in large part due to arms imports by China shrinking by 64 per cent between the two periods, as it increasingly substituted imports—mainly from Russia—with locally designed and produced weapon systems.

Four states in Asia and Oceania ranked among the 10 largest arms importers globally in 2020–24: India, Pakistan, Japan and Australia. The main suppliers to the region in 2020–24 were the USA, which accounted for 37 per cent of regional arms imports, Russia (17 per cent) and China (14 per cent).

India was the world’s second largest arms importer, with its imports reflecting perceived threats from both China and Pakistan. However, its imports decreased by 9.3 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24.